Extrapolating human probability judgment

Authors

Daniel N. Osherson, Institut Dalle Molle D'intelligence Artificielle Perceptive
Edward E. Smith, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Tracy S. Myers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Eldar Shafir, Princeton University

Document Type

Article

Publication Title

Theory and Decision

Abstract

We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.

First Page

103

Last Page

129

DOI

10.1007/BF01079209

Publication Date

3-1-1994

Recommended Citation

Osherson, Daniel N.; Smith, Edward E.; Myers, Tracy S.; and Shafir, Eldar, "Extrapolating human probability judgment" (1994). University Faculty Publications and Creative Works. 522.
https://digitalcommons.calvin.edu/calvin_facultypubs/522